Thursday, June 7, 2012

SUNDAY EDITION 16-20: (21) "Debka" WEEK-IN-REVIEW Wednesday June 06, 2012 Sivan 16, 5772

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DEBKAfile Special Report June 6, 2012, 11:18 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  Syria   Kofi Annan   Iran   Russia   Barack Obama   Israeli security 
The Syrian connection
The Syrian connection

Israel remains dormant despite the serious consequences to its strategic and security situation threatened by the new proposal the UN-Arab League envoy for Syria Kofi Annan is to present to the UN Thursday, June 7. DEBKAfile: He proposes establishing a “contact group” that would amount to giving the Syrian crisis into Russian and Iranian hands. It has Barack Obama’s blessing although it is a catastrophe for Israel’s security and a negation of his pledge to contain Iran’s regional expansion and halt its nuclear program.

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Russian Monitors for Assad’s WMD 
Will Obama’s grand Syrian ploy with Russian help him with Iran? 
more
US, Iran to Keep Their Deals Secret 
The new US 9-point blueprint precludes an attack on Iran during diplomacy. 
more
Stiffer Sanctions Delay Israel Attack 
US to impose air and sea transport embargo on Iran in the fall. 
more
 



 

Headlines
Clinton in Baku amid Russian-Iranian friction over Azeri stake in Israeli energy 
DEBKAfile Special Report
June 6, 2012, 1:22 PM (GMT+02:00)
Richard Morningstar, designated US ambassador to Baku
Richard Morningstar, designated US ambassador to Baku

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives in Baku, Azerbaijan Wednesday, June 6, amid Ali Khamenei and Vladimir Putin’s deep disapproval of President Ilam Aliyav’s pro-Western orientation and fast-growing ties with Israel. Frictions center on Baku’s $1.6 billion arms transaction with Israel and even more, DEBKAfile reports, on the fact that the deal is matched by expanding Azerbaijani investment in Israel’s Mediterranean gas and oil projects. This tradeoff is marked for expansion.

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Obama’s air-sea blockade plan for Iran delays Israeli strike. Hormuz at stake?
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 4, 2012, 8:41 PM (GMT+02:00)
IRGC Chief Gen. Ali Jafari on Abu Musa island
IRGC Chief Gen. Ali Jafari on Abu Musa island

 US President Barack Obama has again persuaded Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to hold off attacking Iran’s nuclear program in the coming months by promising a new set of tough sanctions against Iran. US administration officials assuredDEBKAfile’s Washington sources that Israel’s leaders, were won over once more – this time by the Obama administration’s promise to impose an air and sea blockade on Iran, failing progress at the Moscow nuclear talks. Tehran may hit back by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

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Rebels set Syrian fighter jets and helicopters ablaze opposite Golan
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 3, 2012, 10:42 PM (GMT+02:00)
Introducing the new Syrian rebel contraption: T-HOMS 75
Introducing the new Syrian rebel contraption: T-HOMS 75

As Syrian ruler Bashar Assad stood before parliament in Damascus Sunday, June 3, declaring, “Not even monsters could have carried out the Houla massacre,” rebels attacked a Syrian Air Force base east of the southern town of Deraa opposite the Israeli Golan border – their first such attack in the 14-month uprising,DEBKAfile’s military sources report. Several rebel teams firing mortars set fire to fighter aircraft and assault helicopters in their hangars at the As Suwayda air base and ripped up runways.

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More articles below
Turkey ditches Syrian rebels. Will Israel attack Hizballah's Scuds?
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 2, 2012, 7:44 PM (GMT+02:00)
Scud D ground-to-ground missile
Scud D ground-to-ground missile

Two radical developments arising from the Syrian conflict are revealed byDEBKAfile: In an astonishing about face, Turkey has abandoned its 14-month support for the Syrian revolt alongside the West and made common cause with Russia, i.e. Bashar Assad.  Further exacerbating fears of a “proxy war” involving Israel, Iran and Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah is preparing to transfer its Scud D missiles, capable of hitting any point in Israel, from Syria to Lebanon. Israel has threatened to stop their crossing by force.

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Syrian rebels abduct 5 top Hizballah officers, including Nasrallah’s nephew
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 1, 2012, 6:11 PM (GMT+02:00)
HIzballah security chief Wafiq Safa married to Nasrallah's sister
HIzballah security chief Wafiq Safa married to Nasrallah's sister

Despite the deep secrecy surrounding the incident,DEBKAfile reports exclusively that unidentified commandos this week kidnapped five top Hizballah commanders, naming them as Ali Safa, a senior officer of Hizballah’s intelligence service and nephew of Hassan Nasrallah; Hussein Hamid, Dep. Commander of Hizballah forces in South Lebanon;  Ali Zerayb, member of its Jihad Council; Hassan Arzouni, chief of intelligence in the Bint Jbeil district bordering on Israel; and Aras Shoeib, head of training in the Beqaa Valley of E. Lebanon.

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Exclusive: Obama weighs action to prevent Al Qaeda grabbing Syrian WMD 
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
May 31, 2012, 11:08 AM (GMT+02:00)
Obama tests Putin
Obama tests Putin

US President Barack Obama, widely expected to pursue direct action against Syrian ruler Bashar following the Houla atrocity, is preoccupied with what he regards as the greater threat to the world: a potential grab for the huge Syrian stock of chemical and biological weapons by Al Qaeda or other terrorist organizations, to prevent which,DEBKAfile reports, he has reached out to Russian President Vladimir Putin with a fresh plan for Syria: 5,000 international monitors, most Russian, to guard those stocks.

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Obama nixes French-Saudi plan to finish Assad by bombing his palace
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
May 30, 2012, 1:07 PM (GMT+02:00)
Bashar Assad's fortified palace atop Mt. Qassioun
Bashar Assad's fortified palace atop Mt. Qassioun

US President Obama recently vetoed a detailed Franco-Saudi plan for ending President Bashar Assad’s rule by means of a massive air strike against his palace that would wipe him, his family and top leadership circle out, DEBKAfile reports. French warplanes from the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier off Syria and Saudi and United Arab Emirates bombers flying in through Jordan would devastate the palace atop Mount Qassioun northeast of Damascus. The US was asked to pitch in by disrupting Syrian air defenses.

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Russian arms ship turned away from Syria. President Putin’s first misstep 
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
May 29, 2012, 11:05 AM (GMT+02:00)
Russian arms ship in suspense
Russian arms ship in suspense

Vladimir Putin, after taking stock of the early days of his third presidency, concludes that Moscow’s handling of the al-Houla massacre and Syria’s ongoing collapse into civil war will go down as a Russian foreign policy failure. He personally comes out of it as the patron of a bloodthirsty tyrant. He has quietly ordered the Russian arms ship Professor Katsman to leave the Syrian port before unloading its cargo. Putin is now taxed with determining his next steps on Syria.

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Israel revives military option after Obama rejects its nuclear demands of Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
May 24, 2012, 9:23 AM (GMT+02:00)
A fateful decision is reached on Iran
A fateful decision is reached on Iran

Israel has withdrawn its pledge to US President Barack Obama not to strike Iran’s nuclear sites before the November presidential election after he rejected its minimal demands for the nuclear negotiations with Iran. This is reported exclusively by DEBKAfile as the Six-Power talks with Iran in Baghdad drag into a second day on Thursday, May 24. Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Wednesday: “No one has to tell us what to do [or not to do]. All options are on the table.”

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DEBKA-Net-Weekly    A sampling from past issues
The New al Qaeda May Decentralize
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #539
May 4, 2012
John Brennan
John Brennan

Ayman al-Zawahiri is challenged by the Syrian jihadist ideologue Abu Musab al-Suri, who preaches the "multi-pede" concept which would end centralized control of the al Qaeda terrorism organiztion and distribute authority for independent decision-making among its franchises. Zawahiri is fighting back.

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Iran Plans a Low-Grade Nuclear Attack on Israel
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #538
April 26, 2012
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Israel’s war preparations are based on the estimate that by the end of 2012, Iran will be able to produce a crude nuclear device as well as a dirty bomb. It calculates as high the risk that Tehran will decide to use those devices for war against Israel in the short term and not wait until it has complete nuclear warhead ready for a ballistic missile.

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Iran Plays Obama’s Game to Win
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #537
April 20, 2012
President Barack Obama and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
President Barack Obama and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

President Barack Obama's proposals are primed to pre-empt war as his first priority before even pre-empting a nuclear Iran. The deal he is offering Tehran will be hard to refuse because it virtually relieves its nuclear program of effective international oversight. Tehran is nonetheless holding out for an end to sanctions.

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Analysis
Obama’s Proposals Are Primed to Pre-empt War – Not a Nuclear-Armed Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report 
April 20, 2012, 12:20 AM (GMT+02:00)
President Barack Obama and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
President Barack Obama and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

President Barack Obama's proposals are primed to pre-empt war as his first priority before even pre-empting a nuclear Iran. The deal he is offering Tehran will be hard to refuse because it virtually relieves its nuclear program of effective international oversight. Tehran is nonetheless holding out for an end to sanctions.

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US military drills Day One after strike on Iran, deploys F-22s to Gulf
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
April 28, 2012, 11:12 AM (GMT+02:00)
USAF F-22s deployed to Persian Gulf
USAF F-22s deployed to Persian Gulf

US Navy, Air Force, ground, intelligence and special forces units based at home, in Europe and the Middle East, took part this week in a special exercise ordered by President Barack Obama to simulate reactions to a potential US/Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, DEBKAfile reports. Advanced US stealth F-22 fighter bombers were also transferred to the Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. Washington is thinking of attacking core elements of Iran’s nuclear program to weaken its hand in negotiations. 

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Gantz: IDF and other armies ready to strike Iran’s nuclear capabilities
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
April 26, 2012, 5:30 PM (GMT+02:00)
Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz meets top US soldier Gen. Martin Dempsey in Washington
Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz meets top US soldier Gen. Martin Dempsey in Washington

Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu acted Thursday, April 26, to correct the damaging impression of divided and conflicting perceptions of the Iranian nuclear threat left by statements delivered in the last two days by himself and Defense Minster Ehud Barak. Israel’s chief of staff Gen. Benny Gantz rallied to the task. He commented Thursday that “other countries have readied their armed forces for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear sites to keep Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

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Tripoli clashes after direct orders from Assad to Lebanese army
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
May 14, 2012, 10:54 AM (GMT+02:00)
Lebanese Tripoli catches fire from Syrian conflict
Lebanese Tripoli catches fire from Syrian conflict

Bashar Assad has stepped in directly to halt the covert war his Western and Arab foes are waging against his regime through Lebanon. DEBKAfile’s military sources disclose he is now sending Lebanese army commanders direct orders for cutting arms, money, fighters and medical supplies to the rebels, especially in Homs. Last week, Lebanese Chief of Staff Gen. Jean Kahwagi was given a crude ultimatum: Take care of the Syrian rebels’ backers in Tripoli, or else the Syrian army will enter Lebanon and do the job.

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