Thursday, December 17, 2009

Prophecy Digest: Great Jet no one can fly (India) -Siddharth Srivastava

Sukhois crash India's defense

Written by Siddharth Srivastava   


See also: 
Another scandal mars Indian defense 
India's Fighter Wars

It has been one of the worst years ever for India's Air Force, with 13 crashes in 2009 that have taken some 25 lives. But two particularly stand out – the loss of two fast, deadly Russian-built Sukhoi SU-30 MKI jet fighters, which can fly 3,200 km at cruising speed carrying eight tons of armaments, with the ability to strike deep into China if necessary. 

The crashes, which have resulted in the grounding of India's entire 105-plane Sukhoi fleet, have raised questions about India's air strike capabilities, given the existing arsenals held by India's often hostile neighbors, Pakistan and China. The first occurred in April, killing Wing Commander PS Narah and injuring Wing Commander SV Munje. In the second, late last month, on a routine training sortie southwest of the Pokharan firing ranges, the two pilots, Wing Commander Srivastava and Flight Lieutenant Arora, bailed out to safety. 

Officials say the first crash was due to a defect in the computerized flight control system, while the latter one was laid to fire in the aircraft engine. As a result, the grounding of the fleet deals yet another blow to the already flailing Indo-Russian defense relationship. 

Ominously as well, the accidents are regarded as a setback to India's air security, as the powerful long-range aircraft have been deployed for combat from any part of the country in a matter of hours. They currently are predominantly stationed along India's western peninsular areas bordering Pakistan to protect the industrial states Maharashtra and Gujarat. However, given recent border tensions with China over territorial rights over the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, Sukhois have been deployed in adjoining Assam for quicker access to China as well.

India has five Sukhoi squadrons bought from Russia in three separate transactions worth US$8.5 billion and aims to ultimately be able to field 280 such fighters, worth US$45 million per copy. The domestic company Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd is expected to manufacture 140 under license by 2015. 

However, the latest events raise new doubts about Russia's ability to service the Sukhois and supply spare parts, which has bedeviled India's MIG aircraft fleet as well, which long formed the backbone of India's air strike force. However, technical snags, shoddy servicing and non-availability of spares resulted in many MIGs going down, killing pilots and damaging India's air force capabilities. 

In a statement in October, the Indian defense ministry said: "the (Sukhoi) aircraft are due for overhaul shortly."Now questions are being asked whether the Sukhois are going the way of the MIGs, raising doubts as well about the efficacy of India's massive defense modernization efforts. 

Pakistan, a former Cold War ally of America and now partner in its war against terror, has meanwhile continued to receive military aid that has included state-of-the art F16 fighters. Pakistan is also assisted by China, whose military prowess is far ahead of India's. Pakistan is the immediate focus of India's military upgrade as evidenced by the recent successful test firing of two nuclear-capable short-range Prithvi missiles in quick succession for the first time. The Prithvi missiles are aimed at targets in Pakistan.

In response to perceived threats from its neighbors following the Mumbai terror attacks by a team of Pakistani militants last November that took 195 lives, India escalated its defense budget (2009-10) by 34 percent in the last year to US$30 billion, while defense modernization expenditures should scale over US$100 billion over the next decade.

India is in the process of building a fighter jet fleet that will comprise the multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA) that will replace the long-obsolete, crash-prone MiG-21 interceptors and fit between the more powerful Sukhoi-30s and the low-end indigenous Tejas LCA lightweight fighters. The Defense Ministry is also looking at a variety of helicopters, radars and long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft to secure its air defense preparedness.

Six global aerospace companies, Lockheed Martin, Boeing (American), Dassault's Rafale (French), Gripen (Sweden), MiG (Russian) and Eurofighter Typhoon (a consortium of British, German, Italian and Spanish companies), are bidding for the big US$12 billion deal to supply 126 MRCA jets.

Shift away from Russia

The latest episodes add to the diminishing role of Russia as India's chief defense supplier, built when the two countries were allies in the Socialist bloc. India has already suffered severe delays in delivery of the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov and at least two nuclear powered submarines from Russia. All of these mean New Delhi has been making a definitive turn away from Russia to other countries such as Israel and America to procure arms, apart from partners France and UK. 

Ties between India and America have deepened with a strategic shift in the relations between the two countries over the last couple of years that also resulted in the signing of the landmark civilian nuclear pact.

The US has been promoting India as a regional counterweight to China as well as tapping new business opportunities for the US's massive defense establishment. Recent American acquisitions by India include, Airborne Early Warning Air Craft, Hawkeye E-2D, developed by Northrop Grumman, and six P-8I Long Range Maritime Reconnaissance aircraft for US$2 billion from Boeing to replace India's ageing TU-142s. 

US firms are top contenders of the MRCA deal as well. Even as America emerges as India's new defense partner Israel has become India's biggest supplier of arms (overtaking Russia) accounting for 30 percent of imports. 

India and Israel have finalized deals for the Barak-8 Naval air-defense system, and the Spyder surface-air-missile system. India also launched an Israeli-made spy satellite from Sriharikota in April 2009 for round the clock surveillance, helping to monitor India's international borders and to anticipate any troop build-up or infiltration attempts by armed groups and track incoming ballistic missiles.

Israel has also supplied India aerostat radar facilities to seek to spot surreptitious guerilla activity, such as Mumbai where the terrorists employed dinghy boats to infiltrate the city. Meanwhile, delivery of the Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd developed Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) mounted on Russian-delivered Ilyushin-76 aircraft, have begun. The Phalcon will boost surveillance capabilities.

The vast amounts of money to be spent over the decade have raised fears that the country's corruption ridden military procurement system will be subject to additional scandals. Already, in June of 2008, the chairman of the state-controlled Ordnance Factory Board was arrested and seven major domestic and international companies, including ones from Singapore, Poland and Israel, were permanently banned from doing business with the Indian ministry of defense. 

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