Pakistan's Coming Horror
The recent attacks are a sign that Pakistan's Taliban see civilian targets as fair game. Brace for more terror to come.
BY MONA SARIKA | OCTOBER 30, 2009
Tensions have soared across Pakistan following a spike in Taliban-mediated violence killing more than 240 people this month alone. Peshawar, a gateway to the northwest tribal belt where the Pakistani Army is on a major offensive against Taliban militants, is a perpetual target for violence. But now, as the line between military and civilian targets blurs, the bloodshed has shaken even the most resilient Pakistanis. It has shattered any illusion that the Pakistani army is successfully quashing the Taliban.
And if Wednesday's strikes tell us anything, it is that there is much more violence to come. Pakistan is at war, and civilians are no longer immune.
The recent string of bloody attacks began on October 12, when a suicide car bombing targeting Pakistani troops killed 41 people in a market in northwest Shangla district, a Pashto-speaking area in the Swat Valley. The Pakistani army claimed it had retaken the area from militants, but the bombing proved otherwise. Two weeks later, a suicide bomber blew himself up inside a U.N. aid agency in Islamabad, killing five staffers. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack and warned of more violence unless the army ended its current offensive in the tribal areas of South Waziristan.
It made good on its promise on October 10 when militants raided the army headquarters in the city of Rawalpindi. Military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said during a press conference in Rawalpindi that the attacks were meant to force the government to "reconsider its decision to go after the Taliban in their heartland on the Afghan border."
Now, the Taliban are threatening to unleash an even grander assault. "The more Taliban feel hemmed in by the Pakistani military presence around South Waziristan, where the Taliban has strongholds, the more they fight back like cornered animals," explains Haroon Rashid of BBC Urdu.
What the attackers are after is alarmingly clear: to terrorize the Pakistani state and people into submission. "The militants want to destabilize the government and intimidate the public," Mehmood Shah, a retired brigadier and defense analyst based in Peshawar, told GEO news network. The war is no longer just between security forces and the militants. Common citizens are directly involved now.
The attacks have certainly succeeded in instilling fear. "When people leave their homes in the morning they fear for their lives," Taj Javed, a freelance journalist, told me. "People are very scared and you can easily see it; there are fewer people on the streets. When I see security forces, I feel there will be soon another attack. We are sick and tired of the attacks."
Like Javed, many fear that things will get worse, not better. "There are going to be more bomb explosions and suicide attacks. Our livelihoods and the future of our generation are at stake," said Minhaj Hasan, a consultant in Lahore, in an interview. "I am scared ... that I might see the end of Pakistan in my lifetime."
Another concerned businessman, Mohammad Rafique, believes that "the army needs to realize that there is a great challenge ahead. They thought that they had broken the back of the militants in Swat. But the very fact that the [most recent] attack happened a day after the attack on the army headquarters means that the militants are very much together and well organized."
It's a big change from a month ago, when there was a hint of optimism in the war against Taliban. Then, the Pakistan army claimed to have routed the Taliban from the Swat Valley. A drone attack in the Waziristan area, the Taliban's stronghold, had killed the Pakistani Taliban's chief and U.S. and Pakistani intelligence officials said that his successor, Hakimullah Mehsud, was killed in a duel to replace him.
Unfortunately, the spate of grisly attacks during the past week has proven that Hakimullah Mehsud is very much alive and so is the Taliban -- with renewed confidence and vengeance to boot. Analysts think that the new Taliban leadership is keen to demonstrate its strength with fresh, dramatic strikes.
Pakistani military officials have said that they would not be deterred by the insurgents' new show of force. Maj. Gen. Abbas said in the Rawalpindi conference that "the South Waziristan offensive will proceed whenever the army decides to launch it."
For Pakistan's government, this is the real test. So far, the military has largely failed in its campaign against the militants. "[T]he history of Pakistan's fight against militancy is a case study in missed opportunities and warning signs ignored until the damage is already caused," Musadiq Sanwal, the editor of Dawn Newspaper, recently wrote.
The militants have taken advantage of this -- as well as their knowledge that the state cannot afford a prolonged operation with winter just around the corner. The Pakistan Army is planning a major offensive in South Waziristan, the Taliban's stronghold. All eyes will be on the battle front. Increasingly, that includes all of Pakistan.
